Archive for March, 2008

US Housing Market Bubble Graph

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US Housing Bubble
I just stumbled upon a very interesting graph on the US housing bubble taken from an August 2006 New York Times article: Read Between All Those For-Sale Signs. The articles is retrospectively very interesting, and hit a few nails on their head. The intro is particularly inspiring to me:

Real bubbles pop. They are fully formed one moment and gone the next. Financial bubbles rarely meet with such a definitive end, which has always been the biggest problem with the metaphor. They let out their air in unpredictable bursts, and it’s usually impossible to figure out whether they have finished deflating or are just starting to.

Good read !

Prudent-Man Rule - There & Back again

The recent market & economic turmoil is leading to many reflecting recent investments strategies & market approach. As is often the case, such reflection will lead to a good old fashion remembrance of good-old common sense. One of the most common sense advice one can follow is the “Prudent Man Rule”.

Prudent Passage

Rendering a court decision in 1830 Judge Samuel Putnum from Massachusetts suggested trustees should:

“observe how men of prudence, discretion and intelligence manage their own affairs, not in regard to speculation, but in regard to the permanent disposition of their funds, considering the probable income, as well as the probable safety of the capital to be invested.”

Sound like wise to me!

Unfortunately, we have witnessed over the past few years the end of the Prudent Man era, and the beginning of the Alpha-the-almighty one. I guess we are switching back to the Prudent Man approach, for a while at least…

Of Snail & Money

I just stumbled upon this hilarious uncyclopedia entry on Snails and felt compelled to share it. Extract:

Snails are rich slugs who can afford housing. Essentially, a snail is the equivalent of a hard-working slug achieving the American dream thanks to the grace of God and Sam Walton.

Passive Funds - Exchanged Traded Funds (ETF)

ETFs will typically work like a normal index fund; they invest in a group of stocks, bonds, and other instruments and mimic the performances of the index tracked. These passive investments were created 15 years ago and enjoyed a rising popularity since their inception. Why is that?

Index fund with stock flexibility

ETFs work like stocks; you can buy and sell them through a brokerage account; they will also be issued detailed information on their security. Like index funds there are many different ETF tracking all sorts of indices. Famous ones are the iShares S&P 500 or the SPDR - based also on the S&P 500.

What does this means for you?

Like index funds, they are considered passive vehicles; for you this means that your expense fees will be relatively low. On average, they will not beat the normal index funds, as they are traded through the day, but should be quite close. Turnover also is quite low as they track indices. This means the fund manager will enjoy lower trade expenses, yours dropping too thanks to the domino effect.

Sounds great – but what are the caveats?

As with normal index funds, you may encounter potential hiccups. What could they be?

Firstly your expense ratio will be slightly higher than with normal index fund. As with every financial product you will need to do your background work and select the ETFs which match your criterias. Unless you are looking for something very specific, you usually can find ETFs with low costs.

Secondly you will need to pay a commission to the brokerage when you buy or sell shares in the ETF. It can quickly add up if you trade on a regular basis or if your buyings are in small number.

Thirdly, the fact that ETFs are working as stocks, you may not enjoy dividends or capital gains reinvested. Some ETFs may be the exception here, so once again, doing your homework can be interesting.

Finally, some ETFs may not be based on good indices. Because of an ill-constructed index you may end up paying more in trading fees as the index keep changing. It may also mean that your ETF end up with low trading and you could end up with a significant bid-offer spread.

At the end of the day…

ETFs are a sound alternative to index funds. They enjoy an interesting trading advantage, while not having too much of a draw-back in term of cost should you go for a good provider. A safe one to start with would be Barclays Global Investors with their isharess products.

Passive Funds - Index Funds

Index funds are collective investment scheme - usually mutual funds - whose objective is to closely follow the performance of an index of the financial market. For example, the infamous Vanguard S&P 500 index fund track the S&P 500 largest public companies based in the US (I know, their naming is creative). The fund holds stocks across those 500, in the same proportion as the famous index it is named from. It works like a mimic.

Vanguard

How do they work?

Most of them work like your usual mutual funds; each fund has a price - Net Asset Value – and is traded on a daily basis. They also charge for management fees, trading costs, and may distribute dividends and/or capital gains.

How are they different?

They are considered passive as their manager simply follow the index as closely as possible; they do not try to cherry pick the stocks they hold like usual mutual funds. They do not need to have battalions of analyst to uncover potential hidden gem on the stock markets. Many index funds have little or no human input in the decision thanks to the index they are tracking and the use of computer model to follow them.

What does this means for you?

Firstly, this means that you exactly know what you are investing in when chosing such funds. They are very diversified, and are a very good base to build a portfolio upon as their diversification is very good.

Secondly, your trading costs should be much reduced thanks to low stocks turnover - Indexes do not change on a regular basis, and their components are stable. Striking two birds with one stone, this will also helps avoid capital gains taxes. Their low turnover means that the fund will less frequently need to sell stock to accommodate index changes, saving you the trouble of dealing with these tax liabilities.

Thirdly, thanks to their little human input, the management fees are much reduced – the manager’s job being much simplified. As an example, the Vanguard S&P 500 has a very expensive ratio of 0.1%. You can’t really beat that.

These cost savings can be quite substantial. You can sometimes saves as much as 3 to 5 percent in return per year when comparing with some actively managed funds. Of course you may not have the pleasure to brag about how your portfolio beat the indexes. But you are sure not to have to see your nice double digit returns being eaten up by expensive fees.

Sounds great – but what are the caveats?

Of course, you guessed from the hereabove that I quite like index funds. While I think they are great, you may encounter potential hiccups. What could they be?

First, you will certainly not outperform the market as the funds try to match them. Some discrepancies may happen, but they usually are because of errors in tracking – our second point.

Secondly, some funds don’t track their index as perfectly as you would wish they do. They may take a little time to match changes in their index, or their cash position is sufficient to tamper their performance.

Thirdly, even though indexes are pretty stable, their composition changes over time. As an example a company like Google was not indexed only a few years back. The S&P 500 index has a typical turnover of between 1% and 9% per year. In effect, the fund manager will have to sell its position in markets that fell out of the index and buy the replacing ones so as match the new index.

Finally, following indexes means that you will also enjoy the ups and downs of the tracked index. You will therefore not be fully protected when global market go south. But your diversified investment is a great way to dilute your risks.

At the end of the day…

As said earlier, index funds are great tools to build a portfolio upon. The success of the Vanguard S&P 500 index fund is an example of the investors love for such product. This fund is present in so many investor’s portfolio that it has even more assets under management than Fidelity’s massive Magellan Fund. Quite a statement !

Passive Funds as a foundation

There are thousands of funds around the globe. All of them doing similar things in many different ways. The fun of the game is to find the fund which will suit your need and objectives; there always is one thing not to forget though: your fund needs to outperform the markets! There’s little value in picking a fund if it does not beat indicators.

Roots

Picking the right fund can be difficult, especially when you are no specialist and are trying to get consistent returns. Even the best of managers know off-years. As a result of this, you are very likely to end up with an average performing fund, which may beat the market,but only by a thin margin. Furthermore, your average performance will suffer from the trading and management fees you will have to pay to the manager – there are few Berkshire Hathaway.

Many investors do not wish to take these risks, yet want to enjoy the profitable long term growth of the stock markets. They want to achieve diversification, so as to not put all their eggs in the same basket, seeing their profit being taken away by hefty management fees.

Such investors likes to base their portfolio on passively managed funds - indexed funds and exchanged traded funds. These type of funds enjoy very low management fees since they do not require any research — they simply monitor the index so as to mimic it. They also give investors an easy “15-minutes-do-it-yourself” diversification strategy.

I see such funds as base to build from a great portfolio. I so highly think of them that I decided to further introduce Index Funds and Exchanged Traded Funds in soon to come posts – a little teaser never hurts :-)

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